CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY, Philippines – As the May 13 elections draw near, results of the latest Xavier University - Ateneo de Cagayan’s Kinaadman: University Research Office (KURO) survey show incumbent Mayor Oscar Moreno of Partido Demokratiko Pilipino - Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) still in a clear lead over all other mayoral candidates.
In the said survey, conducted among 1,000 (sample size) registered voters in Cagayan de Oro City from April 27 to May 1, Moreno has a voter preference of 60.3% and remains in the topmost statistical ranking. Behind in second place is Pompee La Viña of Padayon Pilipino with a voter preference of 21.3%. Independent contenders Felix Frias Borres stand at 0.6 %, while Ben Tiu Contreras at 0.0%. Undecided voters accounted for 17.3%, while 0.5% had no response. The margin of error is at ±3.0 percentage points with 95% confidence level.
Moreno remains the favored candidate in both districts of CDO with 59.8% of voter preference in District 1 and 60.7% in District 2. La Viña got the second highest share of voter preference in District 1 with 18.4% and 23.9% in District 2. Borres and Tiu got less than 1% support of the registered voters each in both districts. The undecided voters were at 20.9% in District 1 and 14.0% in District 2.
Comparing the two KURO surveys, Moreno garnered 61.5% in the overall share of the voters’ preference in the first survey while in the second one, he got 60.3%, a difference of 1.2 percentage points. La Viña had 16.0% in the first survey then up with 5.3 percentage points, at 21.3% in the latest one. Borres and Tiu got less than 1% support of the registered voters each in both surveys. The number of undecided voters dropped from 21.4% to 17.3% as the election day approaches.
Voters’ preference for vice mayor places Moreno’s running mate Kikang Uy (PDP-Laban) still in lead with 59.3%, followed by former mayor Vicente Emano (Padayon Pilipino) with 24.8%. Undecided voters accounted for 15.2%, while 0.7% had no response. The margin of error is at ±3.0 percentage points with 95% confidence level.
According to districts, Uy has the support of 62.8% of registered voters in District 1 and 56.2% in District 2, while Emano has the nod of 19.2% of District 1 voters and 29.8% in District 2. The numbers of undecided voters were at 17.5% and 13.1% in the two districts, respectively.
Uy got 55.0% of the voters’ preference in the first poll and 59.3% in the second one, up with 4.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Emano rose from 23.6% to 24.8% in the latest survey. As in the mayoral race, the undecided voters for the vice-mayoral contest also decreased from 21.3% to 15.2%.
Race for the seats in the city council
From District 1, PDP-Laban candidates stand out in the race for the eight (per district) of the 16 seats in the city council. Of the 10 contenders with a statistical chance of winning, eight are from the ruling party and one each from Padayon Pilipino and Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP).
Ranked from 1st-to-5th are (in alphabetical order based on surname) Roger Abaday (PDP-Laban), Romeo Calizo (PDP-Laban), Dok Boboy Daba (PDP-Laban), Inday Dahino (PDP-Laban), and Zaldy Ocon (PDP-Laban).
The first set of candidates ranked 1 to 5 are statistically tied, indicating that no one has a significant lead over the others and that any of the five can be in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th rank. The margin of error is at ± 4.5 percentage points with 95% confidence level.
In the 6th-to-10thspots are (in alphabetical order based on last name) Jundabs Yamut Daba (PDP-Laban), Manny Darimbang (PFP), George Goking (PDP-Laban), Jay Pascual (PDP-Laban), and Lordan Suan (Padayon Pilipino).
The second set of candidates ranked 6 to 10 are statistically tied, showing that no one has a significant lead over the others in the group and that any of them can be in the 6th to 10th position. The margin of error is at ± 4.3 percentage points with 95% confidence level.
The latest KURO survey results also show that Padayon Pilipino’s Jose Pepe Jr, Ronald Acanas, and Alden Bacal who used to be part of the rank 8-13 group in the first survey are now Out of a Possible Top 8 Finish (OPTF).
Voters in the District 2 also prefer PDP-Laban bets in the city council. Of the 14 candidates with a statistical chance of winning, eight are running under PDP-Laban, four are from Padayon Pilipino, and two are from Centrist Democratic Party (CDP).
In rank 1-7 are (in alphabetical order based on surname) Girlie Balaba (PDP-Laban), Edgar Cabanlas (PDP-Laban), Suzette Daba (PDP-Laban), Malou Gaane (PDP-Laban), Bong Lao (PDP-Laban), Ian Mark Nacaya (PDP-Laban), and Eric Salcedo (PDP-Laban). This set of candidates ranked 1 to 7 are statistically tied, indicating that no one has a significant lead over the others and that any of the seven can be in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, or 7th rank. The margin of error is at ± 4.2 percentage points with 95% confidence level.
In the 8th-to-14thspots are (in alphabetical order based on last name) Jun Acenas (Padayon Pilipino), Alexander Dacer (Padayon Pilipino), Leon Gan Jr (Padayon Pilipino), James Judith II (CDP), Ebod Melliza (PDP-Laban), Bebot Rodriguez (CDP), and Ramon Tabor (Padayon Pilipino). This set of candidates ranked 8 to 14 are statistically tied, showing that no one has a significant lead over the others in the group and that any of them can be in the 8thto 14th position. The margin of error is at ± 4.1 percentage points with 95% confidence level.
The latest KURO survey results also reveal that the rank of Acenas and Tabor changed from rank 1-7 to rank 8-14, while Balaba and Daba (Suzette) who used to be part of rank 8-13 in the first survey are now up in rank 1-7. Melliza who was OPTF in the first survey now has a spot in rank 8-14 in the second survey.
A total of 49 candidates (26 from the First District and 23 from the Second District) are gunning for 16 coveted spots in the city council.
Who will be CDO's congressional representatives?
In District 1, incumbent Rolando Uy (PDP-Laban) still dominates the congressional race with a voter preference of 65.8%, followed by Caesar Ian Acenas (Padayon Pilipino) with 15.4% and Gil Banaag (PFP) with 2.7%. Undecided voters were at 15.0%. The margin of error is at ± 4.3 percentage points with 95% confidence level.
Uy went from 66.1% in the first survey to 65.8% in the second one, while Acenas got 16.4% and 15.4% in the two polls, respectively. Banaag went from 1.9% of voters’ preference to 2.7%. Statistically, there is no significant change in the differences between the results of first and second surveys as regards the three candidates.
In District 2, Rufus Rodriguez (CDP) has the support of 57.3% of the registered voters. Trailing behind Rodriguez are Alam Lim (PDP-Laban) with 33.0% and Roger Villazorda (PFP) with 0.8%. Only 8.7% of the voters remain undecided, while 0.2% has no response as to their preference for a congressman. The margin of error is at ± 4.2 percentage points with 95% confidence level.
Between the first and second polls, Rodriguez and Villazorda had no statistically significant change in their results. However, as the number of undecided voters dropped from 15.9% to 8.7%, preferences for Lim increased significantly from 19.4% to 33.0%.
Where do Kagay-anons get their info about the candidates?
Whereas in the previous KURO survey, the major barangay-level issues in Cagayan de Oro City were identified, this time, the respondents of the second survey answered the question: What helps them most to know more the candidates?
Each respondent could have responded with multiple answers from the eight choices provided.
The sources as identified by the voters and ranked were: (1st) television, (2nd) radio, (3rd) brochures and campaign materials, (4th) candidates’ jingles, and (5th) social media, (6th) surfing the internet, (7th) newspaper, and (8th) text messages.
The latest XU-KURO survey, conducted on April 27 to May 1, used a systematic random sampling in the selection of households. The sample size of 1,000 was allocated proportionately to Districts 1 and 2.
As in all past poll surveys by KURO, this research was fully funded by Xavier University - Ateneo de Cagayan.
Xavier Ateneo’s non-partisan stand
In an April 1 memo to the academic community, Xavier Ateneo president Fr Roberto C Yap SJ iterated, “[The university] participates in a non-partisan way in electoral processes to contribute to the strengthening of democratic and patriotic values as enshrined in the Philippine Constitution.”
Xavier Ateneo aligns with the advocacy for Clean, Honest, Accurate, Meaningful, and Peaceful (CHAMP) elections, and enjoins everyone in the community to practice the Ignatian value of discernment in choosing candidates running for elective posts in government.
The XU Social Development’s Student Involvement and Advocacy Program (SSIAP) is also facilitating activities – such as Kwentuhang Bayan Series, PAG-ILA: Candidates’ Profiling Series, electoral fora, and election monitoring with NAMFREL and PPCRV – to promote CHAMP principles and values.
“Xavier Ateneo will maintain its non-partisan stand to facilitate objective and critical thinking and engagement for the academic community,” Yap said. “We will actively support electoral programs and activities primarily as convener of the multisectoral LIHUK 2019 movement.”∎
Report by Stephen Pedroza
Infographics by Jezka Ratilla
You may download the technical briefs of the survey here.
For clarifications or questions, you may contact Kinaadman: University Research Office (KURO) at the Xavier Ateneo Main Campus.