Moreno, Uy in clear lead
TOP 3 CDO MAYORAL CANDIDATES: Former Mayor Vicente Emano, District 2 Representative Rufus Rodriguez, and Re-electionist Mayor Oscar Moreno.
With just days left before the May 9 elections, results of the latest Xavier University Kinaadman Research Center (XU KRC) poll survey show incumbent Mayor Oscar Moreno now in a double-digit lead over 2nd District Representative Rufus Rodriguez and former mayor Vicente Emano.
The survey was conducted among 1,000 registered voters in the city, 18 years old and above and with biometrics, from April 25-26, a day after the last presidential debate but before the local candidates’ final debate at Limketkai Center.
Whereas in the previous KRC survey, the three mayoral candidates were in a statistical tie, this time Moreno of the Liberal Party (LP) commanded 42 percent of votes, putting him in first place. He is up 12 percentage points from the previous survey results. Far behind in second place is Centrist Democratic Party of the Philippines (CDPP) candidate Rodriguez, whose rating remained fixed at 26 percent. PaDayon Pilipino’s (PP) Emano dropped to 22 percent, down 10 percentage points from 32 percent. He is now in third place. Independent candidate Eric Saarenas stood at 0.2 percent, while undecided voters decreased from 12 percent to 10 percent. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at 97.5 percent confidence level.
Moreno was the favored candidate in both Districts with 48 percent of votes in District 1 and 37 percent in District 2. Emano got the second highest number of votes in District 1 with 27 percent, followed by Rodriguez with 14 percent. Saarenas had 0.21 percent. The margin of error for District 1 is ±4.5 percentage points at 95 percent confidence level.
In District 2, Rodriguez trailed Moreno with 29 percent, while Emano received 25 percent, placing him in a statistical tie with Rodriguez at a margin of error of ±4.1 percentage points at 95 percent confidence level. Saarenas was the choice of 0.19 percent of voters.
Survey results of the vice mayoral race had Kikang Uy of LP on top with 37 percent, up from 27 percent in the last survey. Emano’s running mate Ian Acenas, who was the first choice in the previous poll, dropped 13 percentage points, from 43 percent to 30 percent, and is now ranked second. Roger Abaday of the CDPP dipped slightly to 15 percent from 17 percent. Undecided voters, however, increased from 13 percent to 18 percent. The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points at 95 percent confidence level.
In District 1, Uy was chosen by 44 percent of voters, followed by Acenas with 30 percent and Abaday with 10 percent. The margin of error is ±4.5 percentage points at 95 percent confidence level. In District 2, Uy and Acenas are in a statistical tie with 31 percent and 30 percent respectively. Abaday followed with 20 percent. The margin of error is ±4.0 percentage points at 95 percent confidence level.
LP and United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) candidates dominated the race for councilor in the 1st District. Of the 13 contenders with a statistical chance of winning, 8 are from LP, while 5 are from UNA.
Zaldy Ocon (LP) is in the lead with 5.52 percent. Behind him is Annie Daba (UNA) with 4.18 percent and ranked 2nd to 5th , along with Inday Dahino (UNA), 3.94 percent; Romeo Calizo (LP), 3.86 percent and Jay Pascual (LP), 3.70 percent.
Other probable winners for the top eight in District 1 are Reuben Daba (LP), 3.46 percent; Alvin Calingin (UNA), 3.41 percent; Dondon Allorin (LP), 3.25 percent; Marlyn Lagumen (LP) and Lordan Suan (UNA) both with 3.22 percent; Alfredo Carcosa (LP) and George Goking (LP) both with 3.20 percent, and Pedro Balite (UNA), 3.01 percent, in 6th to 13th places. A large number of voters are still undecided, climbing up to 32.11 percent from 27.28 percent.
Voters in the 2nd District also preferred more LP candidates in the city council. Of the 15 candidates with a statistical chance of winning, 7 are running under LP, 4 are from CDPP and another 4 are from PP.
Malou Gaane (LP), who was out of a possible top eight finish in the last KRC survey, got 4.15 percent and shares the 1st to 7th rank with Bong Lao (CDPP), 4.03 percent; Nadya Emano (PP), 3.89 percent; Roger Villazorda (LP), 3.70 percent; Richard Baban (LP), 3.60 percent; and James Judith II (CDPP) and Ian Nacaya (PP) both with 3.58 percent.
Rounding up the list of probable winners in the 2nd District are Dale Mordeno (LP), 3.44 percent; Noris Babiera (LP), 3.34 percent; Josefina Bacal (LP), 3.30 percent; Jun Acenas (PP), 3.23 percent; Ermin Pimentel (LP), 3.20 percent; Leon Gan Jr (PP), 3.06 percent; Enrico Salcedo (CDPP), 3.04 percent and Omar Labuntog (CDPP), 3.01 percent, in 8th to 15th places. Undecided voters reduced but remain substantial from 35.54 percent to 25.85 percent.
Voters’ preference for congressional representatives
There is no longer a statistical tie in the congressional race in District 1. Rolando Uy (LP) is now ranked first with 53 percent, a jump of 4 percentage points from the previous survey. Independent candidate Candy Darimbang sank to 41 percent from 46 percent. Undecided voters accounted for 6 percent, just 1 percentage point higher than the last survey. The margin of error is ±4.5 percentage points at 95 percent confidence level.
In District 2, however, the tie is now between Edgar Cabanlas of LP with 33 percent, up by 17 percentage points, and CDPP’s Maxie Rodriguez with 31.7 percent, lower by about 4 percentage points. Ramon Tabor (PP) who tied with Rodriguez for the first to second spot in the first KRC survey is now ranked third with 28.8 percent, a drop from his previous 36 percent. Independent candidates Vangie Carrasco, Chito Fernandez and Celso Balat are in a statistical tie with 1.7 percent, 0.6 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Undecided voters declined from 10 percent to 4 percent. The margin of error is ±4.0 percentage points at 95 percent confidence level.
Voters’ preference for president and vice president
Rodrigo Duterte persists as the strongest candidate in the city, improving his numbers further to 59 percent from 48 percent. He is followed by Grace Poe with 16 percent, down from her previous 19 percent. She is in a statistical tie with Mar Roxas who improved only by 1 percentage point to 13 percent. Jejomar Binay dropped to fourth place with 9 percent, down from 16 percent, and Miriam Defensor-Santiago is in last place with 1 percent. The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points at 95 percent confidence level.
The vice presidential race now has Leni Robredo in a statistical tie with Ferdinand Marcos Jr for the top spot. Robredo improved significantly from 17 percent in the previous survey to 28 percent. Marcos also inched up to 28 percent from 21 percent. Alan Peter Cayetano remains in third place with 22 percent. Francis Escudero fell significantly from 21 percent to 11 percent, putting him in fourth place. Gringo Honasan is in the fifth spot with 4 percent and Antonio Trillanes is last with 2 percent. The margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points at 95 percent confidence level
The 2nd XU KRC election survey used a systematic random sampling in the selection of households. The sample size of 1,000 was allocated proportionately to Districts 1 and 2. The research was fully funded by Xavier University.